Tuesday, January 20, 2009

You should be happy about the recent market declines

In 2007 my clients were coached to move some or most of their money into daily interest accounts. Why? Because I knew markets would decline at least 40% during 2008 and 2009. (It was inevitable considering the sub-prime mortgages and real estate fiasco taking place in USA ) I predicted that the TSX would hit 9,000 or 10,000 in 2008 or 2009 and it could be 2010 or 2011 before it would begin a stable growth period again.

TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange Index) was near 14,500 in 2007 when I suggested a defensive position. The TSX was recently around 9,000. So I believe it’s about 2/3 of the way down now.

Are you protected now?

When markets are down stocks and mutual fund shares are on sale.
The way to make money is to buy low and sell high……not the other way around!

My clients are beginning to or about to begin buying back into the markets slowly over the next twelve to twenty four months. They’ll be likely to hit the lowest prices on shares. The point is to get bought back in before stock markets begin their growth period without losing a large percentage as it continues to drop.

Bulls, Bulls and more Bulls – watch out for the B u l l S _ _ _!

“Two ways to lose big with your investments” Some serious updates for you. No Bull!
If you are my client you would have been warned well in advance (summer and fall of 2007) that the stock markets would drop in value in 2008 and 2009. My original prediction was about a 40% drop to about 8,000 or 9,000 on the TSX – I believe now it could be even worse than that. Bank bail outs by governments will only keep certain firms from going bankrupt and may head off mayhem and riots in the streets. It won’t correct a recession or even a depression form happening.

There are two ways to lose big time in the markets:
#1) Market Timing (changing investments in reaction to monthly, weekly or daily news) most people get it all wrong and many lose more than they would if they stayed invested. Those that do get it correct much of the time rarely come out ahead of fund managers.
#2) Staying Invested through Systemic Failures (This are when the bulls are running crazy!) You can detect the impending systemic failure by noticing the Bull S_ _ _ !

One example of the BS I refer to is the myth created in 1998 and 1999 that ‘dot.com stocks’ (which were trading at ridiculously high price earnings ratios) were of a ‘new era’ in trading and fundamentals didn’t matter. BS! That smelled like BS and I knew it. That’s why I coached my clients to move between 20% and 40% from equities to bonds or cashin Jan 2001 and again another suggestion to move 20% to 40% more in June 2001.

The clients that listened were protected from a 30% to 40% drop in their funds. They were able to switch back into equities at lower prices. This put them over five years ahead in returns when compared to those that stayed invested!

The BS was obvious again in 2007. You can’t lend huge mortgages to people in low income jobs and expect to continue a never ending, artificially created, growth cycle in real estate prices. CNN and other media have been reporting this ludicrous practice for several years now.
These USA banks were lending money on mortgages and lying about people’s incomes on applications just to sell a mortgage. Their angle was that the real estate prices were increasing so fast that these poor people would be able to refinance in three years and keep their payments down.

It just couldn’t happen…..a mathematical impossibility. The houses stopped getting built at some point and when the market was flooded with extra houses the prices started to fall. Those poor people never stood a chance of remortgaging. It was simply logical to me. When you throw away the basic principles of finances things have to go wrong. When the practice is so widespread as we were informed for 2-3 years now it had to bring about a collapse. There was no other way.

This stock market decline didn’t happen in October 2008 it was in the making for several years – we just didn’t know which day or which month it would drop. That’s why I advised my clients to move to safe ground in 2007 and early 2008. They are happy now! That saved up to seven years worth of growth on their funds. (See comparison on below)
To those have not followed my advice so far it isn’t too late. These markets aren’t even half way down yet. (September 2008) The TSX will continue to drop to probably 8,000 or maybe even 7,000 before it turns around - you can still move and avoid losses and be set to earn more when growth starts again.

I can set you up with a systematic investment approach that will protect your money and make sure that you don’t miss out on the next growth cycle. I’ve done it now for two systemic failures and can still help you now. Just call me at 459-2224 (This prediction is not guaranteed – but it is based on my experience in predicting 2 to 5 year trends in the markets and I’ve not been wrong to my knowledge yet.)

“Enhancing lifestyles no matter what happens in an uncertain world"
COMPARISON
Jane sees systemic failure ahead and Bill does what fund managers and politicians want him to do to help them save face and that is to stay invested.
JANE moves to safe investments
BILL stays put.
JANE moves $100,000 to bonds and cash
BILL leaves $100,000 in equity funds
Markets drop 50% like they did from 2000 to 2003
JANE gets about 5% return for 3 years = $115,000
BILL funds drop by 33.3% (fund manager does not drop as much as markets) BILL has $66,600
DIFFERENCE between $115,000 and $66,500 = $48,500


CONCLUSION:
When the Bulls are running, run with them, but when the bulls start running wild, stop, sniff around. If you smell the B U L L S_ _ _ then get out of the way. If you don’t you may get run over by the stampede or get covered in BS

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Low Income Seniors Need Your Help

Please help! Email the Minister of Finance and the Prime Minister to stop this outrage.(see below) Click here to get the content for the email. You can cut and past into body of your email and send it as is or add your own comments if you wish.

WHY?: Low income workers buy an RRSP and get 50% tax refund. When they withdraw the RRSP they pay back the 50% taxes (so far that’s fair). That RRSP withdrawal is classed as ‘income’ on their tax return. The following year those low income seniors have their GIS reduced by 50 cents for every dollar of ‘income’ from their Guaranteed Income Supplement. (Guaranteed Income Supplement is assistance for the lowest income people over age 65 to help provide a minimum standard of living.) Click here to see Government’s own tables. For every $24.00 increase in annual income they deduct $1.00 a month ($12.00 a year) form their Guaranteed Income Supplement.

RRSPs shouldn’t be used to rob seniors of their meager savings, especially when those who by-pass RRSPs are not trapped this way!

This “bait” and “trap” policy used by Canada on the most defenceless in our society is a shame! This only impacts people who have only a few hundred or a few thousand dollars saved. Seniors with large savings wouldn’t qualify for low income assistance anyway. THIS ERROR IN LEGISLATION MAY NOT HAVE BEEN INTENTIONAL BUT IT'S A SHAME TO LET IT CONTINUE.

NOTE: This is not politically motivated as Governments and Opposition Parties of all stripes have allowed this gouging of low income seniors savings for decades. Please help stop it now.
PLEASE FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW. THIS IS SO UNFAIR.

Use irrevocable beneficiary for funding education

The beneficiary of a segregated fund contract receives the funds upon death of the annuitant. Here is a way to retain indirect control over the investments by using an irrevocable beneficiary designation. A parent could set up a segregated fund contract with their child as the owner/annuitant and him/herself as the irrevocable beneficiary.

This could help parents with children entering post-secondary education. With the parent as the irrevocable beneficiary he/she would be required to sign for withdrawals; transfers of ownership; and beneficiary changes, ensuring that they remain involved in what happens to the money.

TAX ADVANTAGE: School expenses will likely offset the child’s income from the investment, there would be no attribution of income and the parent can control how much money the child gets. Please ask for our Investor Opportunities Guide for more information about irrevocable beneficiaries at ghughes@nb.aibn.com

The “IF” in “RRIF

Concerns we hear from seniors who see assets shrinking are very real. We frequently encounter people who have to reduce income to make sure their money lasts as long as they live.
GICs are risky. If you get 3% interest deposited each year and withdraw the minimum RRIF withdrawal which at age 71 is nearly 6% increasing annually to 20% how long will your money last? Actually the minimum income will decrease to less than half what you started with if you keep taking the allowable minimum. That,s no fun at all.

Mutual Funds and Seg. Funds offer some protection against interest rates but are very risky also. If you have a major market decline in the few years before or after you retire your regular income withdrawal can reduce the balance excessively when markets decline. Segregated funds have special advantages, like creditor protection, a death benefit and maturity guarantees. However when you draw income the guaranteed balance is reduced proportional to your withdrawal. Your money can run out quickly and that is no fun either.

There is a better solution available since October 2006 There is a special Seg. fund that not only protect your money like a traditional Seg. fund but they also guarantee an income for life that starts at 5% or your RRIF minimum which ever is higher. This applies if your money is in a RRSP/RRIF. Your income never decreases and will probably increase. Once it is increased according to the guarantee it will never decrease again.

Should you have money that is not in an RRSP or RRIF the tax treatment of these withdrawals make this special type of Seg. fund even more attractive.

Contact us for more detailed information or just click on the “Income Plus” ad at the top right of this page and listen to the videos. They call or email us to show you how simple it is to eliminate all worry about outliving your money or having to reduce your income as you get older. You chose the investment funds in this portfolio. Call for more info.

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Michael J Fox probably thought this wouldn’t have happened to him back in the 1970’s

Being financially secure means you never risk losing the two most treasured items we all have: our home and our lifestyle.(Young people are at greater risk than those who are set.)

Did you know that ...
* 1 in 3 Canadians will develop a life threatening cancer? *
* 91% of the patients who were admitted with a heart attack survive? *
* The death rate from stroke has decreased 50% since 1950? *

People are surviving with these critical illnesses due to medical advances. Your main concern would be ... Can you recover financially from one of these illnesses? With the aging population, the Canadian health care system is under an increasing strain and it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to provide the financial assistance and options you'll desire.

Critical Illness Insurance pays you a lump sum of money up to $2,000,000 if you are stricken by a critical illness and this protection can be purchased for as little as a dollar a day. No conditions are attached to these funds. You’re the one who decides how the money will be spent.

We want to help you secure your financial future by ensuring you have the money to keep your home and lifestyle should you be stricken with one of over 20 Critical Illnesses covered within this plan. Contact us for more information.

Gordon Hughes CFP
tel: (506) 459-2224 or toll free 1-800-471-0411

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Understanding Fund Managers and Politicians

Has a fund manager, or an investment banker advise you to get out of their investment fund? Of course not! That would cause a run on their stocks and they don’t want that, now do they?

Do you ever hear political leaders or finance ministers tell you that we are in for a depression real soon? Like that’s ever going to happen! No way! Not until it has already happened, then they talk. It’d alarm people and grind the economy to a halt faster than if they feed you candy coated talk. So you get the sweetened version. It helps them save face and protects the economy from a sudden drop. (supposedly)

There are two common ways to lose money in the markets.

#1 Market timing – that's reacting to daily, weekly or even monthly events in he economic world - most people do it wrong most of the time. (That's short sighted investing– one should focus on the 2 to 5 year range)

#2 Staying invested during a serious prolonged systemic failure in the markets.
When markets drop 50% like they did in 2001 and 2002 it takes about 5 years for funds to get back up to a break even point. Zero returns for 5 years in anything but smart investing! Markets dropped over 50% in 2008 But we knew that would happen back in 2007.

Get out when a systemic failure is coming – and we knew for several years that this downturn was coming – it had to happen. You can’t do really stupid lending and wildly drive up house prices by making ridiculously bad loans all across a country as large as USA and not have it fall apart. CNN has been keeping us informed of this crisis for several years now. Nobody that owns a TV should be surprised by recent declines in markets. Some would have us believe that the recent US bail out means we are at the bottom I don’t agree.

In 2007 I protected my clients by advising them to move 60% to 80% of their investments from mutual funds into daily interest accounts. That was because we knew the mortgage crisis and US real estate market fiasco was going to implode sooner or later. We knew that would cause serious economic repercussions during 2008 and 2009. I predicted a 40% to 60% drop. The TSX was between 14,500 and 15,500 when I was moving my client’s money to safe ground. In Sept 2008 it was now about 12,000 so it is about ½ way down. Again I predicted it would drop to about 8,000 during 2008 and 2009 before it levels out and begins a growth period and I see no reason to change my view now. (Actually it could go even lower)

My clients are happy now because they have been earning interest but more importantly they are in a position to begin buying back into the markets and that will make them a lot more money.

If you’re tired of mutual fund salespeople telling you what the fund managers told them to tell you and you want someone with insight to look after your interests instead of their interests then call me. I’d love to help you. Call me to find out what to do now.


Gordon Hughes FCI, ELP, CFP
York Financial Phone me at York Financial 443-7777 or home office 459-2224 or residence 472-7308
Services Inc. email me at ghughes@nb.aibn.com
Check my website www.smartchoicelife.ca

“Big Rock Candy Mountains”

This song described a place so wonderful, yes even perfect to this kid as it played on the radio decades ago. For those who don’t recall; the song is about a place where “a bum could stay for many a day, and he won’t need any money.” Here's a verse for old time’s sake:

“In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, all the cops have wooden legs, and the bulldogs all have rubber teeth, and the hens lay soft-boiled eggs. The farmer's trees are full of fruit and the barns are full of hay. Oh I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow, where the rain don't fall, the wind don't blow in the Big Rock Candy Mountains”

So why is an investment adviser writing about some old song?

It’s part of our human nature to want an ‘ideal’ place or existence. We hope we live in a safe place where we feel protected. NEWS FLASH! I’m sorry. It ain’t always so.

We live in a wonderful free world. Our government does keep us safe. However, we also live where greed, and the pursuit of frivolous wealth is rampant. To think we live in a land of saints is naive. So when your investments look like “Big Rock Candy Mountains” where the returns just keep piling up - then look out.

Look out for the smart and powerful people who can find ways to skim off excessive profits especially when they don’t deserve them. Ted Turner, the founder of CNN was interviewed on CNN today (Nov 11, 2008) and this is one part of the interview:

CNN interviewer askedTed: “You lost $7 billion when the dot-com bubble burst after the Time Warner-AOL merger. How did you not see the dot-com bubble bursting? How did you not see that that was all built on air?

Ted Turner: Maybe I did, but I was on a board of directors and a founder, and I was concerned about the AOL merger, but we didn't know that the books were cooked. We didn't do enough due diligence.”

We little guys aren’t the only ones to not consider to the whole picture. To be honest I didn’t realize how much the books were cooked either but I was sure the dot.com stocks were built on air. I knew that bubble would burst. Whether it was ‘dot-com’ in 2002, the ‘US mortgage melt-down’ 2008 or ‘Bre-X’ or any number of other stock shocks you’ll usually find a crook or two behind the scenes.

Being gifted with a strong faith to hold me steady in normal times, and a mind that is suspicious enough to keep me wary of snakes in the wood pile has helped me keep my investment customers safe. During the two last market down-turns that saved them a decade or more of savings from being lost. God willing, I plan to keep working for another 10-15 years and hope to keep your investments safe. If you have faith that I will do that then please tell your friends to call me so I can help them also.

“Enhancing lifestyles regardless of what happens in an uncertain world.”

Gordon Hughes CFP 443-7777 or 443-RRSP www.smartchoicelife.com ghughes@nb.aibn.com